Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 38.11%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (6%). The likeliest Lorient win was 1-0 (8.73%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.