Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 47.01%. A win for Lens had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Lens win was 1-2 (7.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.