Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 51.32%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 24.75% and a draw had a probability of 23.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.66%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (6.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.