Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 41.98%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 34.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.56%) and 2-1 (7.4%). The likeliest Lorient win was 0-1 (7.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.