Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 45.52%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Lorient win was 2-1 (7.37%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.