Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 49.93%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 26.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Monaco win was 1-2 (6.62%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.