Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 71.43%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for AVS had a probability of 10.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.44%) and 0-3 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for an AVS win it was 1-0 (3.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.