Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 48.99%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 48.99% ( | 24.64% ( | 26.36% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.22% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.83% ( | 48.17% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.67% ( | 70.33% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.3% ( | 19.7% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.29% ( | 51.71% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.52% ( | 32.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.99% ( | 69.01% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 10.39% ( 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 2-0 @ 8.44% ( 3-1 @ 5.14% ( 3-0 @ 4.57% ( 3-2 @ 2.89% ( 4-1 @ 2.09% ( 4-0 @ 1.86% ( 4-2 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 2.93% Total : 48.99% | 1-1 @ 11.69% ( 0-0 @ 6.4% ( 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 3-3 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.64% | 0-1 @ 7.2% ( 1-2 @ 6.57% ( 0-2 @ 4.05% ( 1-3 @ 2.46% ( 2-3 @ 2% ( 0-3 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 2.57% Total : 26.36% |