Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 37.67%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 1-0 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Rayo Vallecano in this match.