Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 55.62%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Girona had a probability of 21.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.66%), while for a Girona win it was 0-1 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Villarreal in this match.