La Liga Gameweek 4
Athletic Bilbao
Sep 5, 2026 3.15pm
San Mamés Barria
Atletico

Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Last game
Aug 30, 2026 8.30pm
Celta Vigo 0 - 2 Athletic Bilbao
Goals scored
3
Top scorer
Aitor Paredes

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 8.30pm
Sevilla 1 - 3 Atletico
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
Álex Baena

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 37.44%. A win for Atletico Madrid has a probability of 35.95% and a draw has a probability of 26.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Athletic Bilbao win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win is 0-1 (8.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.27%).

Result

Athletic Bilbao 37.44% ▲ (+0.40)
Draw 26.61% ▼ (-0.13)
Atletico Madrid 35.95% ▼ (-0.27)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.6% ▲ (+0.61)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.55% ▲ (+0.52)
Under 1.5 25.45% ▼ (-0.52)
Over 2.5 50.35% ▲ (+0.72)
Under 2.5 49.62% ▼ (-0.75)
Over 3.5 27.7% ▲ (+0.65)
Under 3.5 72.3% ▼ (-0.66)
Over 4.5 14.91% ▲ (+0.43)
Under 4.5 85.09% ▼ (-0.43)

First Half Winner

Athletic Bilbao 31.2% ▲ (+0.06)
Draw 45.24% ▼ (-0.08)
Atletico Madrid 23.56% ▲ (+0.01)

Team To Score First

Athletic Bilbao 51.8% ▲ (+0.11)
No Goal 7.38% ▼ (-0.21)
Atletico Madrid 40.82% ▲ (+0.11)

Corners

Over 8 60.07% ▲ (+0.01)
Equal 8 11.28%
Under 8 28.66%
Over 9 48.38% ▲ (+0.02)
Equal 9 11.69%
Under 9 39.93% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 10.5 37.28% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 10.5 62.72% ▼ (-0.01)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 1.5 37.37% ▲ (+0.70)
Under 1.5 62.63% ▼ (-0.70)
Over 2.5 14.8% ▲ (+0.42)
Under 2.5 85.2% ▼ (-0.41)
Over 3.5 4.56% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 3.5 95.44% ▼ (-0.18)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 69.7% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 0.5 30.3% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 1.5 36.51% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 1.5 63.49% ▼ (-0.17)
Over 2.5 14.37% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 2.5 85.63% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 3.5 4.73% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 3.5 95.27% ▼ (-0.11)

Score analysis

Athletic Bilbao 37.44%
Draw 26.6%
Atletico Madrid 35.95%
Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 9.27% ▼ (-0.10)
2-1 @ 8.49% ▲ (+0.09)
2-0 @ 6.09% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 3.64% ▲ (+0.09)
3-0 @ 3.11% ▲ (+0.05)
3-2 @ 2.4% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 4.44% ▲ (+0.17)
Total : 37.44%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.27% ▼ (-0.09)
0-0 @ 7.38% ▼ (-0.21)
2-2 @ 5.74% ▲ (+0.09)
3-3 @ 1.09% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 0.12% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 26.6%
Atletico Madrid
0-1 @ 8.79% ▼ (-0.25)
1-2 @ 8.16% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 5.84% ▼ (-0.15)
1-3 @ 3.41% ▲ (+0.04)
0-3 @ 2.89% ▼ (-0.07)
2-3 @ 2.25% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 4.61% ▲ (+0.10)
Total : 35.95%

Head to Head

La Liga
Atletico
Apr 25, 2026 8.00pm
3
2
HT : 0 1
FT Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao
  • Antoine Griezmann 49' goal
  • Alexander Sørloth 54' goal
  • Johnny Cardoso 58' yellowcard
  • Johnny Cardoso 59' yellowcard
  • Nico González 63' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Molina 63' yellowcard
  • Robin Le Normand 72' yellowcard
  • Obed Vargas 72' yellowcard
  • Alexander Sørloth 90'+3' goal
  • goal Aitor Paredes 23'
  • yellowcard Adama Boiro 63'
  • yellowcard Oihan Sancet 63'
  • yellowcard Álex Berenguer 70'
  • yellowcard Robert Navarro 70'
  • yellowcard Mikel Vesga 70'
  • goal Gorka Guruzeta 90'+7'
La Liga
Athletic Bilbao
Dec 6, 2025 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Atletico
  • Mikel Jauregizar 14' yellowcard
  • Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 20' yellowcard
  • Aymeric Laporte 28' yellowcard
  • Alex Berenguer 85' goal
  • yellowcard Conor Gallagher 12'
  • yellowcard Koke 90'+4'
La Liga Gameweek 26
Atletico
Mar 1, 2025 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao
  • Alexander Sorloth 57' yellowcard
  • Julian Alvarez 66' goal
  • Pablo Barrios 68' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 32'
  • yellowcard Andoni Gorosabel 62'
  • yellowcard Yeray Alvarez 87'
La Liga Gameweek 4
Athletic Bilbao
Aug 31, 2024 6.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT San Mames Barria
Atletico
  • Nico Williams 15' yellowcard
  • Yeray Alvarez 34' yellowcard
  • Oihan Sancet 35' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Koke 85'
  • goal Angel Correa 90'+2'
La Liga Gameweek 33
Atletico
Apr 27, 2024 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao
  • Rodrigo De Paul 5' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo De Paul 15' goal
  • Angel Correa 52' goal
  • Unai Simon 80' goal
  • Mario Hermoso 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Antoine Griezmann 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Nico Williams 45'
  • yellowcard Oihan Sancet 59'
  • yellowcard Aitor Paredes 71'
Copa del Rey
Athletic Bilbao
Feb 29, 2024 8.30pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT San Mames Barria
Atletico
  • Inaki Williams 13' goal
  • Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 40' yellowcard
  • Nico Williams 42' goal
  • Iker Muniain 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Gorka Guruzeta 61' goal
  • Inigo Lekue 66' yellowcard
  • Oscar de Marcos 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mario Hermoso 28'

Form Data

Celta Vigo 0 - 2 Athletic Bilbao
Barcelona 2 - 0 Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao 1 - 3 Sevilla
Atalanta 1 - 0 Athletic Bilbao
Marseille 3 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Amorebieta 0 - 0 Athletic Bilbao
Sevilla 1 - 3 Atletico
Atletico 2 - 2 Villarreal
Atletico 2 - 0 Malaga
Marseille 1 - 2 Atletico
Man City 3 - 1 Atletico
Man Utd 2 - 1 Atletico