La Liga Gameweek 4
Athletic Bilbao
Sep 5, 2026 3.15pm
3
0
HT : 0 0
FT San Mamés Barria
Atletico
  • Nico Williams 46' goal
  • Robert Navarro 48' goal
  • Oihan Sancet 90' goal
  • yellowcard Kang-in Lee 39'

Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Last game
Aug 30, 2026 8.30pm
Celta Vigo 0 - 2 Athletic Bilbao
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
Robert Navarro

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 8.30pm
Sevilla 1 - 3 Atletico
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Álex Baena

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 36.5%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 36.46% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (8.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.

Result

Athletic Bilbao 36.5% ▲ (+0.01)
Draw 27% ▲ (+0.04)
Atletico Madrid 36.46% ▼ (-0.09)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.61% ▼ (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.32% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 25.68% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 50.28% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 49.72% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 28.3% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 3.5 71.71% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 4.5 15.24% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 4.5 84.76% ▲ (+0.08)

First Half Winner

Athletic Bilbao 33.52% ▼ (-0.01)
Draw 42.53% ▲ (+0.08)
Atletico Madrid 23.95% ▼ (-0.07)

Team To Score First

Athletic Bilbao 49.53% ▼ (-0.05)
No Goal 7.52% ▲ (+0.03)
Atletico Madrid 42.95% ▲ (+0.03)

Corners

Over 8 58.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Equal 8 11.18% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 8 29.96%
Over 9 47.36% ▲ (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.49% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 9 41.14% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 10.5 36.51% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 10.5 63.49% ▼ (-0.01)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 1.5 36.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 63.14% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 14.44%
Under 2.5 85.56%
Over 3.5 4.61% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 95.39% ▲ (+0.02)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 69.89% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 0.5 30.11% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 1.5 37.25% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 1.5 62.75% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 2.5 15.1% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 2.5 84.9% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 3.5 5.02% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 94.98% ▲ (+0.03)

Score analysis

Athletic Bilbao 36.51%
Draw 27.01%
Atletico Madrid 36.46%
Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 9.34% ▼ (-0.03)
2-1 @ 8.2% ▲ (+0.03)
2-0 @ 5.96% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 3.5%
3-0 @ 2.86% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 2.24% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 4.41% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 36.51%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.14% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 7.52% ▲ (+0.03)
2-2 @ 5.92% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.23%
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 27.01%
Atletico Madrid
0-1 @ 8.8% ▼ (-0.01)
1-2 @ 8.06% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 5.93% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 3.64% ▼ (-0.03)
0-3 @ 2.87% ▲ (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.34% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 4.82% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 36.46%

Head to Head

La Liga
Atletico
Apr 25, 2026 8.00pm
3
2
HT : 0 1
FT Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao
  • Antoine Griezmann 49' goal
  • Alexander Sørloth 54' goal
  • Johnny Cardoso 58' yellowcard
  • Johnny Cardoso 59' yellowcard
  • Nico González 63' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Molina 63' yellowcard
  • Robin Le Normand 72' yellowcard
  • Obed Vargas 72' yellowcard
  • Alexander Sørloth 90'+3' goal
  • goal Aitor Paredes 23'
  • yellowcard Adama Boiro 63'
  • yellowcard Oihan Sancet 63'
  • yellowcard Álex Berenguer 70'
  • yellowcard Robert Navarro 70'
  • yellowcard Mikel Vesga 70'
  • goal Gorka Guruzeta 90'+7'
La Liga
Athletic Bilbao
Dec 6, 2025 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Atletico
  • Mikel Jauregizar 14' yellowcard
  • Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 20' yellowcard
  • Aymeric Laporte 28' yellowcard
  • Alex Berenguer 85' goal
  • yellowcard Conor Gallagher 12'
  • yellowcard Koke 90'+4'
La Liga Gameweek 26
Atletico
Mar 1, 2025 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao
  • Alexander Sorloth 57' yellowcard
  • Julian Alvarez 66' goal
  • Pablo Barrios 68' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 32'
  • yellowcard Andoni Gorosabel 62'
  • yellowcard Yeray Alvarez 87'
La Liga Gameweek 4
Athletic Bilbao
Aug 31, 2024 6.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT San Mames Barria
Atletico
  • Nico Williams 15' yellowcard
  • Yeray Alvarez 34' yellowcard
  • Oihan Sancet 35' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Koke 85'
  • goal Angel Correa 90'+2'
La Liga Gameweek 33
Atletico
Apr 27, 2024 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao
  • Rodrigo De Paul 5' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo De Paul 15' goal
  • Angel Correa 52' goal
  • Unai Simon 80' goal
  • Mario Hermoso 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Antoine Griezmann 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Nico Williams 45'
  • yellowcard Oihan Sancet 59'
  • yellowcard Aitor Paredes 71'
Copa del Rey
Athletic Bilbao
Feb 29, 2024 8.30pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT San Mames Barria
Atletico
  • Inaki Williams 13' goal
  • Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 40' yellowcard
  • Nico Williams 42' goal
  • Iker Muniain 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Gorka Guruzeta 61' goal
  • Inigo Lekue 66' yellowcard
  • Oscar de Marcos 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mario Hermoso 28'

Form Data

Celta Vigo 0 - 2 Athletic Bilbao
Barcelona 2 - 0 Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao 1 - 3 Sevilla
Atalanta 1 - 0 Athletic Bilbao
Marseille 3 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Amorebieta 0 - 0 Athletic Bilbao
Sevilla 1 - 3 Atletico
Atletico 2 - 2 Villarreal
Atletico 2 - 0 Malaga
Marseille 1 - 2 Atletico
Man City 3 - 1 Atletico
Man Utd 2 - 1 Atletico

Build-up

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