Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 57.37%. A draw had a probability of 23.98% and a win for Girona had a probability of 18.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%) , while for a Girona win it was 0-1 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.