Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 39.24%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 34.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (5.97%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (8.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.