Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 64.55%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 15.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.89%) and 2-1 (10.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%) , while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (4.93%).