Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 58.54%. A draw had a probability of 20.81% and a win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 20.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9%) , while for a AZ Alkmaar win it was 1-2 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.