Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.31%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (7.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.