Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 47.32%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 31.28% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.88%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 1-2 (7.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.