Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 55.42%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 23.44% and a draw had a probability of 21.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.57%) and 0-2 (8.28%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 2-1 (5.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.