Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 49.52%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 26.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.12%) and 0-2 (8.05%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (6.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.