Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 71.5%. A draw had a probability of 15.54% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 12.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.26%) and 3-1 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.25%) , while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.25%).