Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 73.84%. A draw had a probability of 14.48% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 11.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.87%) , while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.