Eredivisie Gameweek 22
Feb 8, 2026 1.30pm
AFAS Stadion

AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Last game
Jan 31, 2026 3.30pm
AZ 1 - 3 Nijmegen
Goals scored
34
Top scorer
Troy Parrott

Ajax

All competitions
Last game
Feb 1, 2026 11.15am
Excelsior 0 - 1 Ajax
Goals scored
35
Top scorer
Mika Godts

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 47.95%. A win for Ajax has a probability of 29.46% and a draw has a probability of 22.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Ajax win is 1-2 (7.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.58%).

Result

AZ Alkmaar 47.95% (+0.27)
Draw 22.59% (-0.09)
Ajax 29.46% (-0.18)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.71% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.43% (+0.09)
Under 1.5 18.57% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 61.49% (+0.18)
Under 2.5 38.51% (-0.18)
Over 3.5 39.4% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 60.6% (-0.08)
Over 4.5 24.84% (+0.15)
Under 4.5 75.16% (-0.15)

First Half Winner

AZ Alkmaar 42.67% (-0.01)
Draw 33.35% (+0.07)
Ajax 23.97% (-0.07)

Team To Score First

AZ Alkmaar 59.23% (+0.30)
No Goal 4.75% (-0.02)
Ajax 36.02% (-0.28)

Corners

Over 8 62.53% (-0.01)
Equal 8 11.13%
Under 8 26.34% (+0.02)
Over 9 50.73% (-0.03)
Equal 9 11.8%
Under 9 37.47% (+0.01)
Over 10.5 39.31% (-0.01)
Under 10.5 60.69% (+0.01)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 1.5 51.19% (+0.25)
Under 1.5 48.81% (-0.25)
Over 2.5 26.05% (+0.25)
Under 2.5 73.95% (-0.25)
Over 3.5 11.97% (+0.22)
Under 3.5 88.03% (-0.21)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5 65.28% (-0.19)
Under 0.5 34.72% (+0.19)
Over 1.5 35.68% (-0.18)
Under 1.5 64.32% (+0.17)
Over 2.5 14.36% (-0.09)
Under 2.5 85.64% (+0.10)
Over 3.5 4.8% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 95.2% (+0.05)

Score analysis

AZ Alkmaar 47.94%
Draw 22.58%
Ajax 29.46%
AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 9.3% (+0.06)
1-0 @ 7.94% (-0.05)
2-0 @ 6.43% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 4.86%
3-0 @ 3.85% (+0.04)
3-2 @ 3.83% (+0.02)
Other @ 11.73% (+0.21)
Total : 47.94%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.58% (-0.04)
2-2 @ 6.47% (-0.05)
0-0 @ 4.75% (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.54%
Other @ 0.24% (+0.01)
Total : 22.58%
Ajax
1-2 @ 7.08% (-0.01)
0-1 @ 5.86% (-0.03)
0-2 @ 3.94% (-0.05)
1-3 @ 3.22% (-0.04)
2-3 @ 2.94% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.86% (+0.03)
Other @ 4.56% (-0.07)
Total : 29.46%

Head to Head

KNVB Beker
Jan 14, 2026 8.00pm
6
0
HT : 3 0
FT AFAS Stadion
  • Troy Parrott 2' goal
  • Troy Parrott 33' goal
  • Peer Koopmeiners 45'+1' goal
  • Kees Smit 47' goal
  • Elijah Dijkstra 57' yellowcard
  • Billy van Duijl 72' yellowcard
  • Ayoub Oufkir 72' yellowcard
  • Ibrahim Sadiq 72' yellowcard
  • Matej Sin 78' yellowcard
  • Troy Parrott 80' goal
  • Ibrahim Sadiq 88' goal
  • yellowcard Raul Moro 46'
  • yellowcard Rayane Bounida 46'
  • yellowcard Jorthy Mokio 74'
  • yellowcard Anton Gaaei 74'
  • yellowcard Aaron Bouwman 81'
Eredivisie Eredivisie Europa Playoffs
Oct 18, 2025 8.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Eredivisie Gameweek 26
Mar 16, 2025 3.45pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT Amsterdam ArenA
  • Kenneth Taylor 22' yellowcard
  • Anton Gaaei 58' goal
  • Anton Gaaei 74' redcard
  • Oliver Valaker Edvardsen 85' goal
  • yellowcard Alexandre Penetra 32'
  • goal Zico Buurmeester 52'
  • yellowcard Kristijan Belic 54'
  • yellowcard Jordy Clasie 58'
  • redcard Alexandre Penetra 74'
  • goal Ibrahim Sadiq 83'
KNVB Beker
Jan 14, 2025 5.45pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
  • Wouter Goes 36' goal
  • Peer Koopmeiners 81' yellowcard
  • Mexx Meerdink 89' goal
  • yellowcard Bertrand Traore 77'
  • yellowcard Youri Baas 90'+3'
Eredivisie Gameweek 15
Dec 8, 2024 1.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT AFAS Stadion
  • Wouter Goes 46' yellowcard
  • Troy Parrott 65' goal
  • Mayckel Lahdo 76' goal
  • yellowcard Wout Weghorst 36'
  • yellowcard Josip Sutalo 45'+2'
  • goal Mika Godts 81'
Eredivisie Gameweek 23
Feb 25, 2024 3.45pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT AFAS Stadion
  • Ruben van Bommel 7' goal
  • Riechedly Bazoer 55' yellowcard
  • Ruben van Bommel 67' goal
  • Wouter Goes 79' yellowcard