Eredivisie Gameweek 21
Feb 1, 2026 11.15am
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

SBV Excelsior vs Ajax - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

SBV Excelsior

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 8.00pm
FC Twente 0 - 0 Excelsior
Goals scored
20
Top scorer
Noah Naujoks

Ajax

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 3.30pm
Ajax 2 - 0 Volendam
Goals scored
34
Top scorer
Mika Godts

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ajax win with a probability of 42.83%. A win for SBV Excelsior has a probability of 34.7% and a draw has a probability of 22.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (7.77%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win is 2-1 (7.5%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.01%).

Result

SBV Excelsior 34.7% (-0.09)
Draw 22.51% (-0.14)
Ajax 42.83% (+0.29)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.69% (-0.03)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.29% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 18.71% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 60.3% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 39.7% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 37.76% (-0.21)
Under 3.5 62.24% (+0.21)
Over 4.5 23.06% (-0.13)
Under 4.5 76.94% (+0.13)

First Half Winner

SBV Excelsior 34.38% (+0.08)
Draw 35% (-0.39)
Ajax 30.62% (+0.32)

Team To Score First

SBV Excelsior 51.89% (+0.25)
No Goal 4.78% (-0.01)
Ajax 43.33% (-0.25)

Corners

Over 8 61.36%
Equal 8 10.57%
Under 8 28.07%
Over 9 50.29% (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.07%
Under 9 38.64%
Over 10.5 39.6% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 60.4% (-0.01)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 1.5 40.14% (-0.21)
Under 1.5 59.86% (+0.21)
Over 2.5 18.01% (-0.18)
Under 2.5 81.99% (+0.18)
Over 3.5 6.98% (-0.08)
Under 3.5 93.02% (+0.08)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5 75.05% (+0.05)
Under 0.5 24.95% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 45.96% (+0.10)
Under 1.5 54.04% (-0.10)
Over 2.5 21.47% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 78.53% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 7.63% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 92.37% (+0.03)

Score analysis

SBV Excelsior 34.69%
Draw 22.5%
Ajax 42.82%
SBV Excelsior
2-1 @ 7.5% (+0.01)
1-0 @ 6.17% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 4.55% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 3.81% (-0.05)
3-2 @ 3.2% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.58%
Other @ 6.88% (-0.05)
Total : 34.69%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.01% (-0.05)
2-2 @ 6.17% (-0.05)
0-0 @ 4.78% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.44% (-0.04)
Other @ 0.1% (-0.05)
Total : 22.5%
Ajax
1-2 @ 8.68% (+0.09)
0-1 @ 7.77% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 6.44% (+0.07)
1-3 @ 4.71% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 3.91%
0-3 @ 3.78% (+0.07)
Other @ 7.53% (+0.03)
Total : 42.82%

Head to Head

Eredivisie
Nov 22, 2025 5.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Eredivisie Gameweek 31
Apr 24, 2024 8.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Johan Cruijff Arena
  • Devyne Rensch 27' goal
  • Steven Bergwijn 36' redcard
  • Benjamin Tahirovic 68' yellowcard
  • Mimeirhel Benita 73' yellowcard
  • Chuba Akpom 89' goal
  • goal Julian Baas 38'
  • goal Lazaros Lamprou 53'
  • yellowcard Siebe Horemans 67'
  • yellowcard Anton Gaaei 77'
Eredivisie Gameweek 2
Aug 19, 2023 3.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
  • Siebe Horemans 45'+1' goal
  • Nikolas Agrafiotis 48' goal
  • goal Brian Brobbey 25'
  • goal Davy Klaassen 72'
Eredivisie Gameweek 19
Jan 29, 2023 1.30pm
1
4
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Redouan El Yaakoubi 36' goal
  • goal Dusan Tadic 15'
  • goal Davy Klaassen 45'
  • goal Mohammed Kudus 61'
  • goal Devyne Rensch 83'
Eredivisie Gameweek 10
Oct 16, 2022 7.00pm
7
1
HT : 3 0
FT
  • Jorge Sanchez 15' goal
  • Steven Berghuis 26' goal
  • Brian Brobbey 44' goal
  • Brian Brobbey 59' goal
  • Dusan Tadic 65' goal
  • Steven Bergwijn 75' goal
  • Mohammed Kudus 81' goal
  • goal Nikolas Agrafiotis 90'
Eredivisie Gameweek 30
Apr 13, 2019 5.30pm
6
2
HT : 3 1
FT Amsterdam ArenA (Amsterdam)
  • Noussair Mazraoui 4' yellowcard
  • Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 10' goal
  • Dusan Tadic 37' goal
  • Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 40' goal
  • Dusan Tadic 60' goal
  • Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 65' goal
  • Kasper Dolberg 75' goal
  • Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jeffry Fortes 32'
  • goal Mounir El Hamdaoui 42'
  • yellowcard Ryan Koolwijk 43'
  • yellowcard Mounir El Hamdaoui 49'
  • goal Jeffry Fortes 89'