Eredivisie Gameweek 21
Excelsior
Feb 1, 2026 11.15am
2
2
HT : 0 2
FT Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Ajax
  • Gyan de Regt 62' yellowcard
  • Miliano Jonathans 63' yellowcard
  • Lewis Schouten 63' yellowcard
  • Miliano Jonathans 74' goal
  • Arthur Zagré 79' goal
  • Mike van Duinen 89' yellowcard
  • goal Mika Godts 21'
  • goal Mika Godts 40'
  • yellowcard Oliver Edvardsen 67'
  • yellowcard Wout Weghorst 67'
  • yellowcard Jinairo Johnson 80'
  • yellowcard Takehiro Tomiyasu 80'

SBV Excelsior vs Ajax - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

SBV Excelsior

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 8.00pm
FC Twente 0 - 0 Excelsior
Goals scored
27
Top scorer
Noah Naujoks

Ajax

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 3.30pm
Ajax 2 - 0 Volendam
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Mika Godts

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.38%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.44%) and 0-2 (6.16%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (7.58%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result

SBV Excelsior 35.11% ▼ (-0.12)
Draw 22.51% ▲ (+0.08)
Ajax 42.38% ▲ (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.79% ▲ (+0.23)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.95% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 18.05% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 61.26% ▲ (+0.16)
Under 2.5 38.74% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 3.5 38.7% ▲ (+0.28)
Under 3.5 61.3% ▼ (-0.28)
Over 4.5 23.74% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 4.5 76.26% ▼ (-0.26)

First Half Winner

SBV Excelsior 34.12% ▼ (-0.27)
Draw 35.02% ▲ (+0.03)
Ajax 30.86% ▲ (+0.24)

Team To Score First

SBV Excelsior 52.15% ▲ (+0.13)
No Goal 4.55%
Ajax 43.3% ▼ (-0.14)

Corners

Over 8 61.78% ▲ (+0.43)
Equal 8 10.63% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 8 27.6% ▼ (-0.47)
Over 9 50.61% ▲ (+0.33)
Equal 9 11.16% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 9 38.22% ▼ (-0.43)
Over 10.5 39.82% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 10.5 60.18% ▼ (-0.22)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 1.5 41.09% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 1.5 58.91% ▼ (-0.12)
Over 2.5 18.53% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 2.5 81.47% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 3.5 7.26% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 3.5 92.74% ▼ (-0.15)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5 75.08% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 0.5 24.92% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 1.5 46.23% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 1.5 53.77% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 2.5 21.73% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 2.5 78.27% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 3.5 7.79% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 3.5 92.21% ▼ (-0.09)

Score analysis

SBV Excelsior 35.1%
Draw 22.52%
Ajax 42.39%
SBV Excelsior
2-1 @ 7.58% ▼ (-0.08)
1-0 @ 6.07% ▼ (-0.06)
2-0 @ 4.57% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 3.88% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 3.26% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 2.61% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 7.13% ▲ (+0.13)
Total : 35.1%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.95% ▼ (-0.04)
2-2 @ 6.37% ▲ (+0.08)
0-0 @ 4.55%
3-3 @ 1.52% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.13% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 22.52%
Ajax
1-2 @ 8.71%
0-1 @ 7.44%
0-2 @ 6.16% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 4.73% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 4.04% ▲ (+0.05)
0-3 @ 3.65% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 7.66% ▲ (+0.07)
Total : 42.39%

Head to Head

Eredivisie
Ajax
Nov 22, 2025 5.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Excelsior
Eredivisie Gameweek 31
Ajax
Apr 24, 2024 8.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Johan Cruijff Arena
Excelsior
  • Devyne Rensch 27' goal
  • Steven Bergwijn 36' redcard
  • Benjamin Tahirovic 68' yellowcard
  • Mimeirhel Benita 73' yellowcard
  • Chuba Akpom 89' goal
  • goal Julian Baas 38'
  • goal Lazaros Lamprou 53'
  • yellowcard Siebe Horemans 67'
  • yellowcard Anton Gaaei 77'
Eredivisie Gameweek 2
Excelsior
Aug 19, 2023 3.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Ajax
  • Siebe Horemans 45'+1' goal
  • Nikolas Agrafiotis 48' goal
  • goal Brian Brobbey 25'
  • goal Davy Klaassen 72'
Eredivisie Gameweek 19
Excelsior
Jan 29, 2023 1.30pm
1
4
HT : 1 2
FT
Ajax
  • Redouan El Yaakoubi 36' goal
  • goal Dusan Tadic 15'
  • goal Davy Klaassen 45'
  • goal Mohammed Kudus 61'
  • goal Devyne Rensch 83'
Eredivisie Gameweek 10
Ajax
Oct 16, 2022 7.00pm
7
1
HT : 3 0
FT
Excelsior
  • Jorge Sanchez 15' goal
  • Steven Berghuis 26' goal
  • Brian Brobbey 44' goal
  • Brian Brobbey 59' goal
  • Dusan Tadic 65' goal
  • Steven Bergwijn 75' goal
  • Mohammed Kudus 81' goal
  • goal Nikolas Agrafiotis 90'
Eredivisie Gameweek 30
Ajax
Apr 13, 2019 5.30pm
6
2
HT : 3 1
FT Amsterdam ArenA (Amsterdam)
Excelsior
  • Noussair Mazraoui 4' yellowcard
  • Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 10' goal
  • Dusan Tadic 37' goal
  • Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 40' goal
  • Dusan Tadic 60' goal
  • Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 65' goal
  • Kasper Dolberg 75' goal
  • Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jeffry Fortes 32'
  • goal Mounir El Hamdaoui 42'
  • yellowcard Ryan Koolwijk 43'
  • yellowcard Mounir El Hamdaoui 49'
  • goal Jeffry Fortes 89'

Form Data

FC Twente 0 - 0 Excelsior
AZ 1 - 1 Excelsior
Excelsior 2 - 2 Telstar
PSV 5 - 1 Excelsior
Excelsior 2 - 1 PEC Zwolle
Excelsior 0 - 2 Groningen
Ajax 1 - 2 Olympiacos
Ajax 2 - 0 Volendam
Villarreal 1 - 2 Ajax
Ajax 2 - 2 Go Ahead Eagles
AZ 6 - 0 Ajax
Telstar 0 - 0 Ajax