Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 45.4%. A win for FC Noah had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.71%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest FC Noah win was 2-1 (7.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.