Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 44.17%. A win for NEC had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 20.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (5.35%) and 0-1 (5.34%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (7.21%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.