Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 40.16%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 35.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.55%) and 0-2 (5.75%). The likeliest Groningen win was 2-1 (8.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.