Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest Groningen win was 1-2 (7.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.