Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 34.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Groningen win was 1-0 (8.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.