Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (6.32%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 2-1 (6.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.