Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 50.85%. A win for Sparta Prague had a probability of 26.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Sparta Prague win was 1-2 (6.29%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.