Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 67.65%. A draw had a probability of 18.52% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 13.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 1-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.56%) , while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.