Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.33%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.9%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.