Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 45.57%. A draw had a probability of 30.31% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 24.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.52%) and 2-1 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.24%) , while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.