Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 29.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (11.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.