Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 51.5%. A draw had a probability of 25.51% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 22.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.02%) and 2-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%) , while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.