Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 47.28%. A draw had a probability of 27.16% and a win for Union had a probability of 25.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%) , while for a Union win it was 0-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.