Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 35.34%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 30.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.47%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 (12.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.