Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 40.38%. A win for Union had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 29.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (10.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.