Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 47.05%. A draw had a probability of 29.12% and a win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 23.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.24%) , while for a Atletico Tucuman win it was 0-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.