Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 43.73%. A draw had a probability of 30.64% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 2-1 (7.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.08%) , while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood.