Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 40.76%. A draw had a probability of 32.64% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.85%) and 2-1 (6.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.1%) , while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.