Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 42.55%. A draw had a probability of 30.72% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 26.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.98%) , while for a Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.