Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 39.53%. A win for Union had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 29.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (9.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.