Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia Mendoza win with a probability of 42.62%. A draw had a probability of 29.92% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 27.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia Mendoza win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 2-1 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.41%) , while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood.