Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 34.61%. A win for Instituto had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 31.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.02%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Instituto win was 1-0 (13.51%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood.