Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 36.59%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 31.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.27%) and 2-1 (7.13%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (13.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.