Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 35.3%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.76% and a draw had a probability of 30.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.69%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 (12.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood.