Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 40.49%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 (10.85%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.