Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 37.5%. A draw had a probability of 31.41% and a win for Tigre had a probability of 31.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.38%) and 2-1 (7.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.79%) , while for a Tigre win it was 0-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.