Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia Mendoza win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 28.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia Mendoza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (9.46%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.